AI for economists and econometricians
Ultramarine Work builds the A-4 workbook, runs the event-study code and drafts the outlook brief from the extracts, do-files and prior estimates already in your project folder. Every figure cites the source file it came from.
Ammonia-rule-A-4-draft.xlsxExample| Alternative | PV costs, $M | PV benefits, $M | PV transfers, $M | Net benefits at 2%, $M | Source and comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No action (baseline) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | This row is the counterfactual, with emissions held at 2024 levels for 2027–2036. |
| Alternative 1, quarterly LDAR | 41.8 | 96.3 | 12.5 | 54.5 | Labor costs come from the QCEW extract, benefits from Ammonia-health-extract.csv. |
| Alternative 2, acid scrubbers on tanks | 118.4 | 171.2 | 30.7 | 52.8 | Transfers are crop insurance indemnities that fall when ammonia damage to crops falls. |
| Alternative 3, electrified compressors | 240.6 | 304.1 | 48.9 | 63.5 | The column includes $38.2M of supplier payroll gains, treated as benefits in draft 2. |
| Preferred option, Alternative 2 with quarterly LDAR | 138.9 | 205.4 | 34.8 | 66.5 | LDAR adds 34.2 of benefits over Alternative 2, not 96.3, because the streams overlap. |
| Alternative 2 at a 7% discount rate | 108.2 | 137.5 | 23.4 | 29.3 | At 7%, costs PV to $108.2M and benefits to $137.5M, netting $29.3M, so the ranking holds. |
NoteAlternative 3 counts $38.2M of supplier payroll as a benefit, but that labor shifts between plants, so net benefits restate to $25.3M.
Ask it for
“Run the DiD for the state paid-sick-leave mandates on the QCEW extracts: employment effects, event study, leads and lags, standard errors clustered by state.”
Sickpay-DiD-event-study.xlsx“Draft the A-4 workbook for the ammonia rule: baseline, three alternatives, transfers shown separately, net benefits discounted at 2%, a sensitivity table.”
Ammonia-rule-A-4-draft.xlsx“Turn the IMPLAN export for the proposed data center into impact tables: direct, indirect and induced jobs, labor income and output, net of displacement.”
Datacenter-impact-tables.xlsx“Write the 2026 outlook brief for our region from the state series and FRED extracts, with a base case, a recession scenario and driver assumptions by sector.”
2026-outlook-brief.docx“Build an evidence table from the 14 minimum-wage studies in the folder, covering method, data, setting, elasticity and external validity for our question.”
Evidence-table-minimum-wage.xlsx“Weight the statewide survey to the ACS population targets and produce toplines with margins of error, crosstabs by county and significance letters.”
Statewide-survey-toplines.xlsx
Inside the Economic Analysis mode
Causal and econometric analysis
For a DiD, synthetic control or matching design, it runs the estimates, the event-study plot and the robustness tables, and reports which pre-trends tests fail.
Public cost benefit analysis
The CBA workbook includes a baseline, alternatives, transfers accounted for separately, net benefits at your discount rates and a sensitivity table.
Economic impact analysis
From your IMPLAN or RIMS II export it assembles the direct, indirect and induced tables, keeps gross separate from net of displacement, and sources every input.
Forecasting and time series
Outlook briefs get a forecast backtested on the years you hold out, prediction intervals and driver assumptions stated by sector.
Literature and evidence review
Hand it the PDFs of prior studies and it builds an evidence table with method, data and estimate for each. Rows it cannot support are marked as gaps.
Program evaluation
It drafts the logic model, the outcome definitions the grant contract actually uses, and a comparison design that can attribute the change you claim.
Survey design and analysis
Weights are raked to your population targets, and the toplines and crosstabs come back with unweighted bases, margins of error and significance letters.
Qualitative research synthesis
It codes interview notes, focus groups and open-ended answers against a shared codebook and reports every theme with the count of respondents behind it.
Proposals and RFP responses
For bids it reads Section M of the RFP, builds the compliance matrix and drafts the SF330, technical and past-performance sections against the stated criteria.
- Office skills
- Excel, Word, PowerPoint, PDF
- Tools
- Read, edit and write files, Search files, Run code, Search and read the web, View images
- Connectors
- SharePoint, Google Drive, Gmail, and additional custom connectors
- House style
- Your fonts, layouts and rules, on every file
How it works
- 1
Load the study folder
Point it at the folder holding the extracts and raw data, the do-files and R scripts, IMPLAN or RIMS II exports, prior studies, the last approved report for house format, and the governing guidance, such as Circular A-4 or A-94.
- 2
Ask for the deliverable
It runs the code, builds the workbook with live formulas and drafts the brief or evidence table. Each table states which file supplied its numbers, and it flags anything it could not reconcile.
- 3
Verify, then decide
You rerun the key estimates, trace each figure back through the do-file to the extract and test the assumptions that drive the result. It drafts and computes, but the finding, the sign-off and the clearance are yours.
Who it’s for
Economists and econometricians at agencies, central and commercial banks, economic consulting firms, think tanks and utilities.
Questions
Does it run the regressions, or does it make up the numbers?
Every estimate it reports comes from running code on the files in the folder, not from the model’s guess. Each table records the data and script behind it. That does not make them correct, because a misspecified model produces tidy output too, so you rerun them in your own software and compare. When a figure will not reconcile, it says so rather than papering over the gap.
Will it invent references for the literature review?
No, and do not take any tool’s word for that, ours included. Its instructions require a source for every claim and tell it to name what it could not find rather than guess. Fabricated citations are a documented failure of chatbots on economics prompts, so check that every study exists and says what the evidence table claims before anything gets cited.
Can we use it on restricted-access microdata, like Census or IRS files?
You cannot use it on Census or IRS files, because the model sends content to Paper Instruments’ servers for processing. Keep restricted-use files out of the folder. FSRDC projects are the clearest case, because that work happens inside Census’ own secure environment with no external network and disclosure review of every output. The app can read files elsewhere on your computer when a request needs it, so whether confidential microdata may be used is a decision for your agency’s disclosure authority to make, not for a tool.
Does it work with Stata, R and our replication workflow?
Yes, it works with the files around them. Put the CSV extracts and the replication package in the folder and it drafts do-files and R scripts, runs code on the extracts and hands back tables with their sources. The estimates that go into the study are still run and verified in your own licensed software, so every published number has a run you executed behind it.
Is it good enough for a Circular A-4 analysis headed to OIRA?
No tool clears the analysis, so the review your draft gets before OIRA sees it is your agency’s reviewers’ work. It builds the workbook and drafts the tables A-4 asks for: baseline, alternatives, transfers accounted for separately, monetized and unmonetized effects, discounting, distribution and sensitivity. The draft cites the guidance file it applied. The methodological calls, the discount rates and the decision on what reaches the docket stay with you.
Where does our data go?
Ultramarine Work changes files only in the project’s folder. When a request needs it, it can read files elsewhere on your computer, never passwords, keys or app data, and you can turn that off in settings. The model runs on Paper Instruments’ servers, so the content it works on is sent there to be processed. Paper Instruments is SOC 2 Type II, and our security and compliance details are on our compliance page.