Frontier intelligence, made abundant.

• Works in your folders, locally or on the cloud.

  Search folders, workstreams, and files⌘KAdd folderMC

  Good afternoon

  Two workstreams need you, and two are working.

  Cloud

  1Project AtlasDOPR4 workstreams

  Q3 board pack1 workstream

  Diligence2 workstreams

  FY27 budget3 workstreams

  New folder

  Shared

  Comps libraryDOView only

  Board minutesPRSLCan edit

  LegalSLView only

  Investor updatesDOSLCan edit

  Local

  1Kestrel5 workstreams

  Tax 20262 workstreams

  Market sizing1 workstream

  ContractsNo workstreams yet

  Expenses1 workstream

  Connect apps

  Desk surface

• Makes and edits your files.

  Project AtlasMMarket pagesPPricing update

  Market pages.pptxView onlyDownload to edit

  The market grows about 20% a year to $10.4bn by 2028, and heavy-duty trucks provide 58% of the growth

  E-drive system market by vehicle segment, US$bn

  Growth bridge, 2025 to 2028E, US$bn

  1.3

  1.1

  1.7

  4.1

  2023

  1.8

  1.3

  1.9

  5.0

  2024

  2.4

  1.6

  2.1

  6.1

  2025

  3.0

  1.9

  2.3

  7.2

  2026E

  3.8

  2.3

  2.5

  8.6

  2027E

  4.9

  2.7

  2.8

  10.4

  2028E

  22.0% CAGR

  19.5% CAGR

  CAGR, 2025–28E

  Heavy-duty trucks

  26.9%

  Medium-duty trucks

  19.1%

  Transit buses

  10.1%

  Heavy-duty covers Class 7–8 trucks and medium-duty covers Class 4–6 trucks. The market includes OEM in-house e-drive production at estimated transfer prices. Figures for 2026E to 2028E are forecasts from the vendor due diligence report.

  6.1

  2025

  +4.0

  More vehicles

  +0.7

  Richer content

  −0.4

  Lower prices

  10.4

  2028E

  Vehicles grow 18.9% a year. SiC inverters, worth about 35% more than IGBT units, and integrated e-axles lift value per vehicle by 6%. Prices fall about 1% a year.

  Sources: vendor due diligence report (November 2025), tested with 21 expert interviews; Kinloch Mobility Research, CV electrification tracker (January 2026), for 2023 to 2025 actuals; deal team analysis (February 2026). Values in US dollars at current prices.

  2

  Three steps earn 68% of the e-drive profit pool on 48% of revenue, and Alder operates in two of them, inverters and e-axle integration

  E-drive profit pool by value chain step, 2025

  Alder by product line, FY2025

  Column width shows revenue in US$bn, height shows EBITDA margin, and area shows the profit pool in US$m

  0%

  10%

  20%

  30%

  Average 15.0%

  8%

  $80m

  Materials and magnets

  $1.0bn

  24%

  $264m

  Power semiconductors

  $1.1bn

  10%

  $120m

  E-motors

  $1.2bn

  19%

  $171m

  Inverters and software

  $0.9bn

  9%

  $90m

  Gearboxes and parts

  $1.0bn

  21%

  $189m

  E-axle integration

  $0.9bn

  Steps where Alder operatesSteps Alder buys inHighest-margin step

  Revenue is the value each step adds to the $6.1bn of e-drive systems sold in 2025. Margins are median EBITDA margins of suppliers at each step, and the profit pool totals $914m.

  Product line

  Revenue

  Share

  EBITDA margin

  Integrated e-axles

  $265m

  43%

  19.6%

  Inverters

  $128m

  21%

  21.1%

  E-motors

  $219m

  36%

  11.5%

  Total

  $612m

  100%

  17.0%

  Semiconductors: bought in

  Two suppliers provide all of Alder’s SiC dies, so the 24% margin at this step accrues outside Alder.

  Mix: 64% inverters and e-axles

  This mix puts Alder’s 17.0% margin 2 points above the 15.0% chain average.

  Growth: semiconductors 25% a year

  SiC rises from 24% to 61% of inverter units by 2030 and lifts this step from $1.1bn to $3.4bn.

  Sources: Alder management accounts (FY2025); supplier annual reports (FY2024) and investor presentations (2025); 21 expert interviews; deal team analysis (February 2026). Step margins are medians across 34 suppliers; margins for companies that do not report segments are deal team estimates.

  3

  Alder ranks third among merchant suppliers with 10% share, second in North America and early on SiC, but it holds 2.6% of Europe

  Share and positioning of the main suppliers, 2025

  Share of 2025 market

  Supplier

  Base and type

  Total

  North America

  Europe

  Product scope

  SiC inverters

  Merchant suppliers

  Holmgren

  Germany; driveline group

  16%

  5.0%

  24.1%

  E-axles; buys inverters

  From 2027

  Brasher

  US; axle maker

  13%

  25.0%

  4.1%

  E-axles; buys motors, inverters

  Via partner from 2026

  Alder

  US; e-drive specialist

  10%

  20.0%

  2.6%

  Motors, inverters, and e-axles

  Shipping since 2023

  Corvant

  US; electrification group

  8%

  8.8%

  7.4%

  Motors and inverters

  Shipping since 2024

  Tessaline

  France; bus drive maker

  6%

  0.8%

  9.9%

  Central drives for buses

  IGBT only

  Other sources of supply

  OEM in-house

  Six truck and bus OEMs

  22%

  20.0%

  23.5%

  E-axles for own vehicles

  From 2027

  Asian entrants

  Four suppliers

  9%

  2.3%

  14.0%

  Bus drives and motors

  Mostly IGBT

  Others

  About 20 suppliers

  16%

  18.1%

  14.4%

  Motors and gearboxes

  Mostly IGBT

  Scope: Alder is the only merchant supplier that makes motors, inverters, and e-axles in-house.

  Europe: 57% of the market but 15% of Alder’s revenue; Holmgren leads there with 24.1%.

  Insourcing: two of Alder’s top three customers, with 41% of revenue, also build e-axles in-house.

  Sources: supplier annual reports (FY2024) and investor presentations (2025); Kinloch Mobility Research, CV electrification tracker (January 2026); Alder customer data (FY2025); deal team analysis (February 2026). Shares are of the $6.1bn market; OEM in-house output is valued at estimated transfer prices, and supplier segment revenue is estimated.

  4

  Saved 2:15 PM by Market pages

  Today 2:02 PM

  Build the market pages for the IC memo from the market study and the CIM.

  I made Market pages.pptx, 4 slides, from Market study.pdf and CIM.pdf.

  Market pages.pptxNew

  Extend the forecast on slide 2 to 2030.

  Private Equity

  Send

Ultramarine 1 Flash

A complete knowledge work benchmark task costs about $0.13 on Ultramarine 1 Flash. The same task costs $1.26 on GPT-6 Sol and $6.96 on Claude Opus 5.5, with comparable performance.

Research

We publish open research on training large language models for agentic use cases.

• Drift and Distance: When Is Score Centering Enough in Async RL?Score centering removes drift in async RL. What remains is distance: how far the trainer moves from the sampler before fresh data arrives.→
• Ultramarine 1 Flash: Scaling Non-Verifiable RLUltramarine 1 Flash: Scaling Non-Verifiable RL across Finance, Law, Consulting, and Operations→
• Introducing Paper OfficeAgent-first Python packages for editing Word documents, PowerPoint presentations, and Excel workbooks.→